Mintonomics research · prototype · 2026-05-12

mintonomics · prototype · 2026-05-12

The reserve is the product.

MUSD is the stablecoin underneath muzix. Its job is one thing: keep the float one-to-one backed by short-duration T-bills, cash, and a small peg-defense bucket. Whether it succeeds is a question about reserves and redemption pressure, watched together over time. Scroll through three years of the canonical baseline simulation, then drag the oracle deviation slider to see what stress looks like.

Day 0 — single label phase

The chain launches with one music label backing it. Mints trickle in at roughly $25K/day; redemptions are below $10K/day. The reserve stack at the right is essentially a flat line near zero, but the T-bill base is already in place — 80% of reserves park in 3-month T-bills from day one.

Year 1 — float crosses $20M

By the end of Y1 the float is $20M and reserves match — by structural design, since mint is a $1-in-$1-out swap. The cash bucket (~15% of reserves) is sized to clear 24-hour redemption SLA at expected daily volume. The peg-defense bucket (5%) is the protocol's hot wallet for AMM market-making during deviation events.

Year 2 — multi-label, queue still empty

Multi-label onboarding takes float past $60M. Notice that the redemption queue line stays pinned to zero throughout. Under baseline assumptions, redemption demand never exceeds the cash bucket's clearing capacity. The 24h SLA holds every day of the run.

Year 3 — institutional, $100M float

Final float lands near $103M with $9.4M cumulative revenue (settlement bps + AMO T-bill yield). Reserves total $103M (1.00x backed). The architecture survives the redemption-run scenario too: peak peg deviation 19.9 bps, $9.3M of T-bills force-liquidated, queue cleared inside the SLA window.

But there's a catch. Try the slider:

Cross 2 bps and the redemption queue starts filling. Cross 5 bps and the AMO begins forced T-bill liquidation. Drag to test.

At 2.0 bps the chart switches to the stress trace. Real-world peg defense doesn't break here — but the muzix royalty oracle does. The baseline sim already showed an adversarial publisher extracting $9.4M while the peg stayed within 2 bps. That's the binding constraint. (See cross-sim convergence #4 in the workspace.)

Companion case study

Eighteen months of AI-token launches — a swim-lane timeline of twelve major decentralized-AI TGEs between Nov 2024 and May 2026, plus the two notable pre-token holdouts. Same chart palette, scroll-driven cursor across the whole window, four findings spelled out in two small panels.

What this prototype is

A pressure-test of the tech stack for mintonomics.kcolbchain.com. One section, one canonical sim, the real CSV data flowing through a build-time JSON pipeline into a Svelte island. Brand chrome is intentionally placeholder — see the placeholder markers; V1 will swap them.

Stack: Astro + Svelte islands + MDX, d3-scale + d3-shape for math (no full d3 import), vanilla IntersectionObserver + Svelte tweened stores for scroll-driven motion. Static build, deployable to the kcolbchain VPS via /etc/caddy/conf.d/mintonomics.caddy.